He's like the friend you don't trust having too many, because he'll go from nice to arrested from drink 7 to drink 8 (or inning 6 to inning 7.)
By my rationale, here's what it will take to make me start chilling the champagne:
10 up with 50 left
8 up with 40 left
7 up with 30 left
6 up with 20 left
4 up with 10 left
I wanted to follow a mathematical pattern with this, but for some reason I still didn't feel that safe with 30 left. What are you guys' numbers? Oh, and if you say anything about jinxing, you are giving me way too much credit.
By the way, later this week I'll update the Chilmark Road Race odds.
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When the Yankees have been eliminated.
By the way, this would be the same criteria if the Sox were in fourth place.
But seriously, we've got six games left against them. A split, and then I'll think about putting the water in the freezer that would become the ice for the bubbly.
Dice-K has his bad innings, but the Red Sox get beaten by Kazmir pretty much all the time.
Since it's my last week at work I've definitely got time for a little more breakdown of my logic:
Assume the Red Sox playing .500 ball in the given time period, something I think is fair to assume in all cases except maybe the 10 and 20 game scenarios. Then the numbers look like this:
Up 10 with 50 left, Yankees have to win 35 (.700 winning percentage.)
Up 8 with 40 left, Yankees have to win 28 (.700 winning percentage.)
Up 7 with 30 left, Yankees have to win 22 (.700 winning percentage.)
Up 6 with 20 left, Yankees have to win 16 (.800 winning percentage.)
Up 4 with 10 left, Yankees have to win 9 (.900 winning percentage.)
I'm sorry, but are we really debating what it's going to take to wrap up the AL East when your Boston Celtics are on the cusp of dealing for Kevin Garnett -- possibly without even giving up Al #&@#@$$%*&&% Jefferson?!?!?!?!
(personally, I simply don't believe that part, but still:
http://www.boston.com/sports/basketball/celtics/extras/celtics_blog/ )
Herald says Jefferson is involved. Herald also blows goats, but I agree - seems unlikely that he'd be left out.
Back to the sox for a scoche-- I crunched some numbers this morning, and if we play .500 ball from here on out (29-29), the yanks have to finish 37-21 to tie, which isn't impossible, but definitely a tall order.
If we play ten games over (34-24), the yanks have to go 42-16. I like our chances.
I'm glad to hear someone else is optimistic about this. I'll check on the Garnett stuff now.
I mean, I like our chances as well. Exchange between my Yankees fan friend and I last weekend:
Me: "Who pitched for the Yankees fan today?"
Him: "Kei Igawa"
Me: "Did he have the key to not sucking? Eh?"
Him: "Stop. 'Kei Igawa' is its own joke"
Generally, these types of exchanges mean things are going well.
Time to knock on all sorts of wood. It's just habit.
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