Not hitting the panic button yet, but I'm definitely making sure I know where it is. Maybe they'll take a cue from the Red Sox and actually spend some money next offesason.
This has nothing to do with yesterday's game - I'm with Rafe, no reason to panic yet - one more loss and you can officially start worrying.
There was an article in the Sunday Times about Urban Meyer and Florida, and how NFL coaches - Belichick specifically - have studied the Florida offense, presumably to find a way mimic the turn-the-spare-parts-into-stars offense of Meyer/Spurrier. Now we have three Florida receivers (Caldwell, Gaffney, Jackson) on the roster, and I'm going to climb waaaay out on a limb and say that's not a coincidence, and I like Belichick's thinking. Caldwell sure looked good yesterday (and looked everywhere - greatest peripheral vision ever?), Gaffney's a retread, and Chad Jackson's young, but if he can make the system or part of it work, I'm down PROVIDED that he open the checkbook to sign some veterans for the defense, specifically, top defensive backs.
I'm a little sick of having a laughingstock DB corps, held together by Rodney Harrison when he's there. But then you have to remember that Ty Law (not the newer, fatter version) really held the team together on D for a long time - Marvin Harrison was NOTHING against Law - and Belichick (at least Belichick the H.C.) inherited him, not drafted him. There are only a few shutdown corners in the league, and I think you're seeing the benefit of having one. It may not always be him who makes the plays, but there's a huge trickle-down effect that results in a guy like Ellis Hobbs playing for your team. Why do you think the Broncos traded Portis for Champ Bailey? Running Backs are much easier to come by. Let's draft or spend on a big-time DB - Harrison is like Schilling at this point, great if he plays, but you can't expect it, even if his latest injury is random. We do that and I think we're a SB favorite again, because we're still pretty damn good now. Maybe easier said than done.
The deflections themselves are not a fluke - that's Brady throwing into tight coverage or putting the ball in a bad spot - but there have been more interceptions off deflections recently than there usually are, or at least that would be my statistical guess after watching football for 28 years. I would guess it's very much like Football Outsiders' study on fumbles, which indicates: causing a fumble, on the whole, requires some skill, while recovering it does not. Defensive players and offensive players recover fumbles at roughly the same rate. I would guess the same is not true for tipped passes, as you've got a lot more defensive players near a thrown ball (because the offensive line is stationary), but my guess it most of the time the ball is going to hit the ground either way. The best way to stop the whole thing is for Brady to put the ball in the numbers.
2 comments:
This has nothing to do with yesterday's game - I'm with Rafe, no reason to panic yet - one more loss and you can officially start worrying.
There was an article in the Sunday Times about Urban Meyer and Florida, and how NFL coaches - Belichick specifically - have studied the Florida offense, presumably to find a way mimic the turn-the-spare-parts-into-stars offense of Meyer/Spurrier. Now we have three Florida receivers (Caldwell, Gaffney, Jackson) on the roster, and I'm going to climb waaaay out on a limb and say that's not a coincidence, and I like Belichick's thinking. Caldwell sure looked good yesterday (and looked everywhere - greatest peripheral vision ever?), Gaffney's a retread, and Chad Jackson's young, but if he can make the system or part of it work, I'm down PROVIDED that he open the checkbook to sign some veterans for the defense, specifically, top defensive backs.
I'm a little sick of having a laughingstock DB corps, held together by Rodney Harrison when he's there. But then you have to remember that Ty Law (not the newer, fatter version) really held the team together on D for a long time - Marvin Harrison was NOTHING against Law - and Belichick (at least Belichick the H.C.) inherited him, not drafted him. There are only a few shutdown corners in the league, and I think you're seeing the benefit of having one. It may not always be him who makes the plays, but there's a huge trickle-down effect that results in a guy like Ellis Hobbs playing for your team. Why do you think the Broncos traded Portis for Champ Bailey? Running Backs are much easier to come by. Let's draft or spend on a big-time DB - Harrison is like Schilling at this point, great if he plays, but you can't expect it, even if his latest injury is random. We do that and I think we're a SB favorite again, because we're still pretty damn good now. Maybe easier said than done.
The deflections themselves are not a fluke - that's Brady throwing into tight coverage or putting the ball in a bad spot - but there have been more interceptions off deflections recently than there usually are, or at least that would be my statistical guess after watching football for 28 years. I would guess it's very much like Football Outsiders' study on fumbles, which indicates: causing a fumble, on the whole, requires some skill, while recovering it does not. Defensive players and offensive players recover fumbles at roughly the same rate. I would guess the same is not true for tipped passes, as you've got a lot more defensive players near a thrown ball (because the offensive line is stationary), but my guess it most of the time the ball is going to hit the ground either way. The best way to stop the whole thing is for Brady to put the ball in the numbers.
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